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Journal Articles Energy and Buildings Year : 2020

Predicting the demand flexibility of wet appliances at national level: The case of France

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Abstract

The manual shift of residential wet appliances (dishwashers and washing machines) in French households that have subscribed to a Time of Use (ToU) tariff represents a flexibility potential available already today and at zero-cost. In this paper we quantify, for the first time, this potential by building a national representative synthetic population for France and using a novel bottom-up model. This includes a stochastic occupant behaviour model for predicting the use of the wet appliances and an overlying agent-based model for predicting their manual shifting under a ToU tariff system. The two models are calibrated and validated using empirical data collected over two recent monitoring campaigns, each carried out in more than 100 French households. By using the new model we observe that a 100% penetration rate of the ToU tariff together with an improved (but practically feasible) households’ flexibility could lead, between 19:00 and 20:00, to a mean hourly load reduction of 0.48 GW, which represents around 0.5% of the typical French annual peak load. This flexibility potential, which is today only partially exploited, could be achieved with zero additional costs for new infrastructures, by encouraging eco practices and/or making the ToU tariff more economically attractive for the households.

Dates and versions

hal-02495719 , version 1 (02-03-2020)

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Marika Vellei, Jérôme Le Dréau, Seddik Yassine Abdelouadoud. Predicting the demand flexibility of wet appliances at national level: The case of France. Energy and Buildings, 2020, 214, pp.109900. ⟨10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.109900⟩. ⟨hal-02495719⟩
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