The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

Georg Umgiesser (1, 2) , Marco Bajo (1) , Christian Ferrarin (1) , Andrea Cucco (3) , Piero Lionello (4) , Davide Zanchettin (5) , Alvise Papa (6) , Alessandro Tosoni (6) , Maurizio Ferla (7) , Elisa Coraci (7) , Sara Morucci (7) , Franco Crosato (7) , Andrea Bonometto (7) , Andrea Valentini (8) , Mirko Orlić (9) , Ivan D Haigh (10) , Jacob Woge Nielsen (11) , X. Bertin (12) , André Bustorff Fortunato (13) , Begoña Pérez Gómez , Enrique Alvarez Fanjul , Denis Paradis (14) , Didier Jourdan (15) , Audrey Pasquet (15) , Baptiste Mourre (16) , Joaquín Tintoré (16) , Robert J Nicholls (17)

1 ISMAR-CNR - Istituto di Scienze Marine [Venezia]
2 KU - Klaipėda University [Lituanie]
3 IAS - Institute for the Study of the Anthropic Impacts and the Sustainability in the Marine Environment
4 DiSTeBA - Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche e Ambientali
5 Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics [Venezia]
6 Protezione Civile - Protezione Civile
7 ISPRA - Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale
8 ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente
9 University of Zagreb
10 University of Southampton
11 DMI - Danish Meteorological Institute
12 LIENSs - LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés
13 LNEC - Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil
14 Météo-France
15 SHOM - Service Hydrographique et Océanographique de la Marine
16 SOCIB Balearic Islands Coastal Ocean Observing and Forecasting System
17 UEA - University of East Anglia [Norwich]

Abstract. This paper reviews the state of the art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice already depends on operational storm surge forecasting systems to warn the population and economy of imminent flood threats, as well as help to protect the extensive cultural heritage. This will be more important in the future, with the new mobile barriers called MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) that will be completed by 2021. The barriers will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of storm surge forecasting in Europe is reviewed. The challenges for the surge forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. This includes consideration of selected historic extreme events that were particularly difficult to forecast. Four potential improvements are identified: (1) improve meteorological forecasts, (2) develop ensemble forecasting, (3) assimilation of water level measurements and (4) develop a multimodel approach.

Domains: Ocean, Atmosphere; Continental interfaces, environment

Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, et al.. The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2021, 21 (8), pp.2679 - 2704. ⟨10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021⟩. ⟨hal-03452981⟩